Michael T. Burr,
Managing Editor
A wise man once said: "A person is smart. People are stupid." This motto might help Y2K contingency planners in predicting the behavior of retail electric consumers.
Perhaps the greatest danger posed by the Y2K crisis is not the technical problem, but the self-fulfill- ing prophecy of Y2K hysteria.
A case in point: an office of the American Red Cross in a large East Coast city reportedly advised residents to prepare for possible Y2K outages by, among other things, filling their bath tubs with water before going to bed on New Year`s Eve. This will provide emergency water supplies, the thinking goes, in case power outages make it impossible to get water on New Year`s morning.
The problem with this plan, however, is that the load spike from millions of residents simultaneously filling their tubs would over-burden both the water system and the electric grid. All of utilities` well-laid Y2K compliance plans would be undone in one fell swoop.
Similar situations might arise in cold climates, where people expecting a brief blackout might turn their thermostats way up to buy a few minutes of comfort. Ice machines will likewise be running over time on the last days of the year to fill the coolers of people attempting to stockpile groceries that can`t be stored at room temperature. Also, manufacturers might step up production during December to ensure they can deliver their goods on schedule. Such preparations will ratchet up power loads. Cold weather in December would exacerbate the problem.
So what`s a utility to do? The obvious answer is to step up communication efforts. Assure the public that the situation is under control. Explain the steps that have been taken to ensure continued service. Describe the contingency plans in place to deal with any problems that might arise.
Such calm logic might go unheard, however, amid the din of hyperbole. The mass media are pulling out the stops in the Y2K hype organ, playing to people`s fears of freezing and/or starving in the dark. Even the sober-minded New York Times reported that 10 percent of the United States` top executives are stockpiling food, generators and guns.
Media hype over Y2K has benefited no one as much as manufacturers of survival equipment. Opportunistic scam artists are spreading grim visions of looting, raping and pillaging.
Unfortunately, informing people about the dangers of overreaction likely won`t help matters. Human beings are bent on self- preservation. No thinking person wants to get stuck unprepared, and logical persuasion is unlikely to stem the tide of self-interest.
No one is immune to this tendency. Speaking for myself, I fully expect stock values to decay through December as investors move funds from stocks to more stable investments. The only thing keeping me from moving my (meager) 401k savings from stocks to bonds is a combination of laziness and conscience. Neither will last very long, and soon I will become part of the problem that might prompt a market meltdown.
Urging restraint in Y2K preparedness might be the rough equivalent of warning a young child never to stick a paper clip in the electric outlet. Probably it wouldn`t have occurred to the child to try such a thing, but now that you`ve brought it up ... ka-POW!
Nevertheless, utilities are obliged to protect grid reliability, no matter what the threat. Outreach programs aimed at educating community groups about appropriate steps for Y2K preparedness can reduce the potential for a self-fulfilling Y2K prophecy.
In any case, failure to undertake these efforts might, in the final analysis, fuel the litigation that will undoubtedly arise-whether New Year`s outages are caused by the millennium bug or the mob`s response to it.
Helpful Y2K websites
www.csw.com/Y2K/default.htm
www.nerc.com/y2k
year2000.epriweb.com
www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/y2k.html
